Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

How many years of life did lockdown save – or destroy?

How many years of life did lockdown save – or destroy?

It’s official – lockdown will eventually have a greater impact on our lives and health than Covid-19 itself. That, at any rate, is the conclusion of a study by the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC), which was published quietly on 15 July.
The study uses a measure known as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), which takes into account the age, health and quality of life of people prior to their death – if a young child died in an accident, for example, it would result in a loss of around 80 QALYs, on the basis that they might otherwise have been expected to live a full and healthy life; if a bedridden 80-year-old with terminal lung cancer died of Covid-19, on the other hand, it would result in a loss of virtually zero QALYs, on the basis that they were soon expected to die anyway, and that their quality of life in the interim was very low.

The concept of QALYs has been criticised on the grounds that it takes a rather cold attitude towards human life and might not take into account the value that many people reaching the end of their lives place on their last few weeks and months. But it is surely a better reflection of the toll from Covid-19, or any other disease or incident, than the simple daily death toll which we have been presented with since the beginning of this crisis.

The DHSC study claims that in the year to March 2021, the direct loss of life from Covid-19 will amount to 530,000 QALYs. It also claims that a reduction of road accidents during lockdown saved 30,000 QALYs and that the adoption of healthier lifestyles – which some may well challenge – will save another 30,000 QALYs.

However, then comes the negative side of the ledger. Reduced access to A&E services, it estimates, will have cost 41,000 QALYs and early discharge from hospital, as well as reduced access to elective surgery, GPs services and so on will cost another 73,000 QALYs.

In the longer term, the postponement of non-urgent medical care will cost 45,000 QALYs, the effects of recession 157,000 QALYs and increased deprivation, as a result of a smaller economy, 294,000 QALYs. Overall, the study notes:

That might seem, in isolation, to be a rather uncomfortable conclusion for the government. But it doesn’t quite end there. The DHSC paper stresses that these are its estimates for the scenario we have just had: where the economy and society is locked down for several weeks and then gradually reopened.

It also provides an estimate for a ‘non-mitigation’ scenario, in which there was no lockdown. In this case, it claims, there would have been 504,000 deaths from Covid-19 plus a further 1.1 million deaths from other causes thanks to the NHS being overwhelmed. So there, lockdown was all worthwhile – according to the DHSC.

Do these estimates really mean anything? They are, needless to say, just guesswork, based on studies, for example, from the effect on human health of past recessions. What does especially catch the eye, however, is the assumption made for calculating Covid-19 deaths in the event of the non-mitigation strategy. The paper states:

“These fatality rates have not been clinically verified but they do give an overall approximately 4% infection fatality rate, which has been suggested by some sources to be the potential impact of an unmitigated scenario.

The ‘some sources’ is referenced as only one source – Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College.

An infection fatality rate of 4 per cent? In fact, Ferguson’s initial estimate for the infection fatality rate of Covid-19, published back in February, was 0.9 per cent. Others at Imperial later revised that down to 0.66 per cent.

Even in Italy, where the health service was overwhelmed, the Infection Fatality Rate has been estimated by the Italian Institute for International Political Sciences, at 1.14 per cent.

The claim that 1.6 million people would have died had we not gone into lockdown seems bizarre. But it does, perhaps, help provide some cover for, and distraction from, for the DHSC’s estimate that Britain will eventually lose more Quality Adjusted Life Years as a result of lockdown than of Covid-19 itself.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Trump Says Ukraine Can Fully Restore Borders with NATO Backing
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Germany Weighs Excluding France from Key European Fighter Jet Programme
Cyberattack Disrupts Check-in and Boarding Systems at Major European Airports
Björn Borg Breaks Silence: Memoir Reveals Addiction, Shame and Cancer Battle
When Extremism Hijacks Idealism: How the Baader-Meinhof Gang Emerged and Fell
JWST Data Brings TRAPPIST-1e Closer to Earth-Like Habitability
Trump Orders $100,000 Fee on H-1B Visas and Launches ‘Gold Card’ Immigration Pathway
France’s Looming Budget Crisis and Political Fracture Raise Fears of Becoming Europe’s “Sick Man”
Three Russian MiG-31 Jets Breach Estonian Airspace in ‘Unprecedentedly Brazen’ NATO Incident
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
×