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Forint's Stability Amid External Shocks and Market Turmoil

Forint's Stability Amid External Shocks and Market Turmoil

Despite external pressures and judicial rulings affecting U.S. tariffs, the forint remains stable against the euro and dollar.
In recent financial developments, experts have noted that the Hungarian forint displayed resistance to external shocks.

Regős Gábor, a leading analyst at Gránit Alapkezelő, highlighted that the forint's performance was notably unaffected by the recent extension of U.S. tariffs on the European Union, which coincided with a strengthening of the dollar against the euro.

Following the Hungarian central bank's interest rate decision, there was only a minimal strengthening in the forint's value, indicating that the market reacted somewhat favorably to the central bank's communications, albeit without substantial movements in currency value over the week.

Adam Rodic from MBH Research affirmed the forint's remarkable stability against the euro, noting that the exchange rate remained at 403.5 at the start of the week and showed little volatility, closing at similar levels.

This stability contrasted sharply with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's comments regarding the euro potentially being a viable alternative to the dollar, which failed to influence the forint's performance.

The forint's impressive resilience can be attributed to Hungary's high interest rate premium, which is among the highest in the EU, alongside Romania.

A significant event in the markets this week arose from legal rulings rather than economic data; the U.S. International Trade Court struck down tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump.

This led to an immediate upheaval in the markets, with the dollar soaring and the euro-dollar exchange rate dipping below 1.125, causing the forint to weaken to 360 against the dollar.

However, the upheaval was short-lived, as a federal appeals court subsequently reinstated Trump's tariffs, allowing the euro to rebound to around 1.14. Senior analyst Zoltán Varga from Equilor noted a significant market movement early Thursday as a result of the court's decision, which led to an abrupt strengthening of the dollar.

Concerns have been raised regarding Trump's economic policies and their potential impact on the national debt, as his tax cuts and expenditure reductions could add up to $3 trillion to the national debt over a decade.

Meanwhile, the BUX index experienced significant fluctuations due to these developments, initially opening at 95,400 points and rising to over 97,300 points by Thursday, close to its historical high from May, before settling around 96,200 points by the week's end.

The BUX's growth has been attributed to the delay of a proposed 50% tariff on the European Union, announced by Trump on Sunday, although this increase in index value proved precarious as it fluctuated in response to market sentiments.

Various stocks also underwent notable volatility; shares of Alteo faced a steep decline of 6.2% following disappointing profit results, only to rebound with a 6.9% correction the following day.

Waberer’s shares reacted positively to a substantial price target upgrade, while OTP Bank's stock climbed 2.5% on Wednesday, positively influencing the overall Hungarian market.

Despite this rally, OTP's shares ultimately stabilized around 27,000 forints, which is nearly 2,000 forints shy of earlier prices two weeks prior.

MOL’s stock exhibited a slight decrease after losing ground from earlier increases.

In the commodities market, Brent crude oil prices remained stable for three days before rising by $1.50, ultimately closing below $63. The lifting of Trump's tariffs led to a sharp increase in oil prices, but the subsequent reinstatement of these tariffs saw prices plunge correspondingly.

Gas prices on the Dutch exchange fell from an initial €36.50 to near €34, which, while a significant drop from the year's highs, aligns with prices from a year ago.

Market reactions suggest that upcoming discussions among OPEC+ member states regarding production increases could further influence oil prices downwards.

Looking ahead to the following week, several key economic data releases are expected, which could provoke notable market movements.

The Polish central bank's interest rate decision on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday are anticipated with great interest.

In May, Poland had lowered its rates by 50 basis points after an extended pause, and further reductions may follow in the upcoming meeting.

On Tuesday, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office will release detailed first-quarter GDP figures, shedding light on the disappointing performance that indicated declines of 0.2% quarterly and 0.4% year-on-year.

Furthermore, Eurostat will provide updates on unemployment and inflation, which could influence the ECB's decisions.

Insights for market movements show the forint may remain within the 400 to 410 range against the euro and 350 to 365 against the dollar in the reflective weeks, although any developments in the ongoing tariff debates could disrupt these projections.
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