European Leftist Bastion May Topple as Portuguese Socialist Party Faces Setback
On March 10th, Portugal held an early parliamentary election following the resignation of the incumbent Social Democratic Prime Minister António Costa in November, in office since 2015, amid corruption investigations that implicated several members of his government.
Although the allegations have not yet reached Costa himself, they have touched upon figures such as the former Minister of Infrastructure and the head of a government-appointed agency. Accusations of illegal handling of the government's major green investment projects have been made against workers at the Ministry of the Environment and Infrastructure, leading to charges of embezzlement and acceptance of bribes.
Costa subsequently stepped down from the leadership of the SOCIALIST PARTY (PS), marking the first election since 2015 where the 62-year-old politician will not be a candidate. Instead, the PS's left-wing faction, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, seeks to guide the ruling socialists to success after eight years in power.
REFERENDUM AGAINST SOCIALIST GOVERNMENTS
Despite the corruption scandal leading to the downfall of Costa's administration, the PS still enjoys considerable support ahead of the election, though well below the 42 percent garnered in the 2022 election which secured them an absolute majority in the 230-seat parliament. They are currently polling at 28 percent support.
However, the socialists are not the favorites as they have failed to implement a significant portion of their campaign promises since assuming power in 2015.
Portugal, with a population similar to Hungary, faces comparable issues: rising living costs, stagnant wages, insufficient public healthcare and education services due to a lack of funding, and a housing crisis that has pushed property and rental prices out of reach for many.
The Costa administration had pledged to address these concerns during each campaign season, yet had governed in a minority until 2022, making slow progress on their agenda. Without a parliamentary majority, they couldn’t initiate reforms as initially planned. Their second term was interrupted by another early parliamentary election, and despite gaining a majority in the 2022 elections, they could not capitalize on it as continuous scandals led to the resignation of 13 government officials by the summer of 2023.
Criticism also abounds for their current leader, Pedro Nuno Santos. Although he champions the rights of workers over employers and promises fairer state wealth redistribution, considering himself a member of the working class due to his grandparents, he grew up affluent due to his parents' successful businesses. Despite advocating for higher taxes on the wealthy, Santos briefly owned a Porsche 911 in 2018.
Furthermore, as the Minister of Infrastructure and Housing between 2019 and 2023, he failed to alleviate the housing crisis as promised by his party and faced controversy over a large severance package paid to a secretary of state under his ministry, forcing him to resign before the end of his mandate.
The socialists' current campaign resembles that of 2022, focusing on preventing a right-wing government, potentially including the far right, if voters do not support them or another leftist party. They claim they would manage the nation's challenges more adeptly than their main opposition, the centre-right SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (PSD).
RIGHT-WING ELECTORAL VICTORY LIKELY, BUT WILL IT TRANSLATE INTO GOVERNANCE?
Despite being rocked by multiple corruption scandals, the largest opposition party, the centre-right PSD, has failed to fully capitalize on these opportunities, remaining stagnant since the last election. Led by Luis Montenegro, the PSD occasionally polled higher than the outgoing PS, but still hovers around the 29 percent mark achieved in 2022.
Skeletons have emerged from the PSD's closet as well, with members under investigation for corruption suspicions.
Furthermore, while the PSD has formed the DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE (AD) with two right-wing Christian Democratic parties, the Democratic and Social Center People's Party (CDS–PP) and the monarchist People's Monarchist Party (PPM), which doesn't currently hold any parliamentary seats, their collective progress remains insufficient for an outright majority.
Nevertheless, recent momentum suggests a rise to an average of 32 percent in the polls during the campaign period, with the alliance seen as a contender for the governing mandate.
The AD's central platform revolves around tax reductions for the middle class, attacking the socialist legacy of a worsened housing crisis and declining public services. In response, Santos warns against the severe austerity measures implemented by a previous PSD government following the economic crisis.
A key debate issue is whether Montenegro would collaborate with CHEGA, a far-right party founded by former sports commentator André Ventura. Neither the PS nor the PSD currently holds a parliamentary majority without smaller parties, only possible if one allies with the far right.
Ventura believes the Portuguese seek change, achievable only through CHEGA, which currently polls at 17 percent, potentially playing a kingmaker role despite being founded just in 2019 with initially 1.3 percent of the vote.
CHEGA's campaign slogan, "Clean up Portugal," targets perceived corruption within the main parties, combining strict law and order with far-right stances on immigration and EU criticism. Ventura, known for xenophobic remarks, has promised chemical castration for sex offenders and described the Roma people as invaders.
CHEGA's proposed solutions closely mirror those of Poland’s Confederation party, advocating for tax reductions, a leaner bureaucracy, and cuts to social transfers while exhibiting culturally far-right libertarian economic views.
NO CLEAR MAJORITY REGARDLESS OF THE WINNER
Even if CHEGA gains a significant number of seats, both the PS and PSD have expressed disinterest in forming a government that includes the far-right party. A split parliament could lead to a minority government.
Santos' chances of forming a majority with small left-wing parties and potentially the Liberal Initiative (IL) are slim. Similarly, Montenegro's alliance is unlikely to secure enough seats without the support of IL representatives and possibly CHEGA as well. However, Montenegro has indicated that even external support from CHEGA would be unacceptable.
Nevertheless, a party need not hold a parliamentary majority to govern; it only requires legislative approval of its cabinet members, policies, and annual budget. Santos has preemptively stated a willingness to grant a right-wing minority government led by PDS AD passage, provided CHEGA is not involved, while pledging to collaborate with anyone excluding the far right. Montenegro has not reciprocated this public statement.
With the outcome of the election uncertain, the true drama in Portugal may unfold during the post-election negotiations, rather than at the ballot box.
Costa subsequently stepped down from the leadership of the SOCIALIST PARTY (PS), marking the first election since 2015 where the 62-year-old politician will not be a candidate. Instead, the PS's left-wing faction, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, seeks to guide the ruling socialists to success after eight years in power.
REFERENDUM AGAINST SOCIALIST GOVERNMENTS
Despite the corruption scandal leading to the downfall of Costa's administration, the PS still enjoys considerable support ahead of the election, though well below the 42 percent garnered in the 2022 election which secured them an absolute majority in the 230-seat parliament. They are currently polling at 28 percent support.
However, the socialists are not the favorites as they have failed to implement a significant portion of their campaign promises since assuming power in 2015.
Portugal, with a population similar to Hungary, faces comparable issues: rising living costs, stagnant wages, insufficient public healthcare and education services due to a lack of funding, and a housing crisis that has pushed property and rental prices out of reach for many.
The Costa administration had pledged to address these concerns during each campaign season, yet had governed in a minority until 2022, making slow progress on their agenda. Without a parliamentary majority, they couldn’t initiate reforms as initially planned. Their second term was interrupted by another early parliamentary election, and despite gaining a majority in the 2022 elections, they could not capitalize on it as continuous scandals led to the resignation of 13 government officials by the summer of 2023.
Criticism also abounds for their current leader, Pedro Nuno Santos. Although he champions the rights of workers over employers and promises fairer state wealth redistribution, considering himself a member of the working class due to his grandparents, he grew up affluent due to his parents' successful businesses. Despite advocating for higher taxes on the wealthy, Santos briefly owned a Porsche 911 in 2018.
Furthermore, as the Minister of Infrastructure and Housing between 2019 and 2023, he failed to alleviate the housing crisis as promised by his party and faced controversy over a large severance package paid to a secretary of state under his ministry, forcing him to resign before the end of his mandate.
The socialists' current campaign resembles that of 2022, focusing on preventing a right-wing government, potentially including the far right, if voters do not support them or another leftist party. They claim they would manage the nation's challenges more adeptly than their main opposition, the centre-right SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (PSD).
RIGHT-WING ELECTORAL VICTORY LIKELY, BUT WILL IT TRANSLATE INTO GOVERNANCE?
Despite being rocked by multiple corruption scandals, the largest opposition party, the centre-right PSD, has failed to fully capitalize on these opportunities, remaining stagnant since the last election. Led by Luis Montenegro, the PSD occasionally polled higher than the outgoing PS, but still hovers around the 29 percent mark achieved in 2022.
Skeletons have emerged from the PSD's closet as well, with members under investigation for corruption suspicions.
Furthermore, while the PSD has formed the DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE (AD) with two right-wing Christian Democratic parties, the Democratic and Social Center People's Party (CDS–PP) and the monarchist People's Monarchist Party (PPM), which doesn't currently hold any parliamentary seats, their collective progress remains insufficient for an outright majority.
Nevertheless, recent momentum suggests a rise to an average of 32 percent in the polls during the campaign period, with the alliance seen as a contender for the governing mandate.
The AD's central platform revolves around tax reductions for the middle class, attacking the socialist legacy of a worsened housing crisis and declining public services. In response, Santos warns against the severe austerity measures implemented by a previous PSD government following the economic crisis.
A key debate issue is whether Montenegro would collaborate with CHEGA, a far-right party founded by former sports commentator André Ventura. Neither the PS nor the PSD currently holds a parliamentary majority without smaller parties, only possible if one allies with the far right.
Ventura believes the Portuguese seek change, achievable only through CHEGA, which currently polls at 17 percent, potentially playing a kingmaker role despite being founded just in 2019 with initially 1.3 percent of the vote.
CHEGA's campaign slogan, "Clean up Portugal," targets perceived corruption within the main parties, combining strict law and order with far-right stances on immigration and EU criticism. Ventura, known for xenophobic remarks, has promised chemical castration for sex offenders and described the Roma people as invaders.
CHEGA's proposed solutions closely mirror those of Poland’s Confederation party, advocating for tax reductions, a leaner bureaucracy, and cuts to social transfers while exhibiting culturally far-right libertarian economic views.
NO CLEAR MAJORITY REGARDLESS OF THE WINNER
Even if CHEGA gains a significant number of seats, both the PS and PSD have expressed disinterest in forming a government that includes the far-right party. A split parliament could lead to a minority government.
Santos' chances of forming a majority with small left-wing parties and potentially the Liberal Initiative (IL) are slim. Similarly, Montenegro's alliance is unlikely to secure enough seats without the support of IL representatives and possibly CHEGA as well. However, Montenegro has indicated that even external support from CHEGA would be unacceptable.
Nevertheless, a party need not hold a parliamentary majority to govern; it only requires legislative approval of its cabinet members, policies, and annual budget. Santos has preemptively stated a willingness to grant a right-wing minority government led by PDS AD passage, provided CHEGA is not involved, while pledging to collaborate with anyone excluding the far right. Montenegro has not reciprocated this public statement.
With the outcome of the election uncertain, the true drama in Portugal may unfold during the post-election negotiations, rather than at the ballot box.
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