Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

El Nino Likely To Return, May Fuel Spike In Global Temperatures: UN Agency

El Nino Likely To Return, May Fuel Spike In Global Temperatures: UN Agency

A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The El Nino event may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina, which influenced temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, WMO said in a statement.

However, while the return of El Nino is considered likely this will be proceeded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with 90 per cent probability, during March-May, the statement said.

The likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions continuing beyond May decreases slightly but remains high, with 80 per cent likelihood in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July, based on the model predictions and assessment from experts involved in producing the Update, it said.

The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year, 15 per cent in April-June, gradually increases to 35 per cent in May-July, the statement said.

Long-lead forecasts for June-August indicate a much higher chance, 55 per cent, of El Nino developing but are subject to high uncertainty associated with predictions this time of the year, the so-called spring predictability barrier, it said.

"The first triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century is finally coming to an end. La Nina's cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight year period was the warmest on record," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

"If we do now enter an El Nino phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures," said Mr Taalas.

The year 2016 is currently the warmest on record because of the combination of El Nino and climate change.

There is a 93 percent likelihood of at least one year until 2026 being the warmest on record. There is also a 50:50 chance of the global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, according to a study last year by the UK's Met Office, which is WMO's lead centre for annual to decadal climate predictions.

The current La Nina began in September 2020 with a brief break in the boreal summer of 2021.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation.

It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Nino in affected regions.

La Nina has been associated with the persistent drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and large parts of South America as well as above average rainfall in South East Asia and Australasia.

The El Nino and La Nina phenomenon occurs naturally. But it is taking place against a background of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns, and making our weather more extreme.

El Nino and La Nina are major, but not the only, drivers of the Earth's climate system.

In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, WMO now also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

A return to near-normal ENSO conditions is predicted for the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, and warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures are generally predicted over other oceanic regions.

This contributes to widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas, according to the GSCU.

Even though La Nina is coming to an end we are likely to see latent impacts for some time to come and therefore some of the canonical rainfall impacts of La Nina may still continue.

The lingering impacts of multi-year La Nina is basically due to its long duration, and continuous circulation anomaly, which are different from the single-peak La Nina event.
AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
French Police Probe Suspected Weather-Data Tampering After Unusual Polymarket Bets on Paris Temperatures
CATL Unveils Revolutionary EV Battery Tech: 1000 km Range and 7-Minute Charging Ahead of Beijing Auto Show
Changi Airport: How Singapore Engineered the World’s Most Efficient Travel Experience
Power Dynamics: Apple’s Leadership Shakeup, Geopolitical Risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and Europe's Energy Strategy Amidst Global Challenges
Apple's Leadership Transition: Can New CEO John Ternus Navigate AI Challenges and Geopolitical Pressures?
Italy’s €100K Tax Gambit: Europe’s Soft Power Tax Haven
Budapest latest News Roundup
Travel on all public transport in the Australian state of Victoria will be free in May and then half price for the remainder of this year as the government ramps up help for consumers battling high fuel costs
News Roundup
Microsoft lost 2.5 millions users (French government) to Linux
Privacy Problems in Microsoft Windows OS
News roundup
Hungary's elections
Péter András Magyar and the Strategic Reset of Hungary
Hungary After the Landslide — A Strategic Reset in Europe
The CIA’s Secret Technology That Can Find You by Your Heartbeat Successfully Locates Downed Airman
Operation Europe: Trump Deploys Vance to Hungary to Save the EU
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Iran warns of $200 oil as forces target merchant ships in Gulf
Japan to Release 45 Days of Oil Reserves Amid Iran Conflict
Global Energy Agency Announces Record Release of 400 Million Barrels to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Hormuz Disruption
U.S. and Israel Intensify Strikes on Iran as Conflict Expands to Lebanon and Gulf States
When the State Replaces the Parent: How Gender Policy Is Redefining Custody and Coercion
Larry Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is resigning from Harvard University as fallout continues over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining about six-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 adding eight-tenths of a percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing roughly one-and-a-quarter percent.
Nvidia posted better than expected results for the January quarter on Wednesday and forecast current quarter revenue above market estimates.
Ukrainian government intensifies pressure on Hungary and Slovakia with oil blockade
Britain’s Channel Crisis: Paying Billions While the Boats Keep Coming
Woman Receives Gift Card for Christmas – Discovers It Is ‘Worth’ 63,000,000,000,000,000 Pounds
United Nations Calls for Global Action Against Disinformation and Hate Speech Online
Tucker Carlson warns of an inevitable clash in Western societies over mass migration
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman praises the rapid progress of Chinese tech companies.
Poland's President Karol Nawrocki ENDS support for Ukrainian citizens:
Italy's PM Giorgia Meloni highlights record employment and economic growth
Chancellor Friedrich Merz Re-elected as CDU Leader, Opposes AfD Influence
Trump Directs Government to Release UFO and Alien Information
Trump Signs Global 10% Tariffs on Imports
UK Government Considers Law to Remove Prince Andrew from Royal Line of Succession
Two teens arrested in France for alleged terror plot.
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocates for a ban on minors using social media.
Meanwhile in Time Square, NYC One of the most famous landmarks
Jensen Huang just told the story of how Elon Musk became NVIDIA’s very first customer for their powerful AI supercomputer
Former British Prince Andrew Arrested on Suspicion of Misconduct in Public Office
Former President Yoon Suk Yeol Sentenced to Life in Prison for Abuse of Authority
Unitree Robotics founder Wang Xingxing showcases future robot deployment during Spring Festival Gala.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz calls for real name use on social media.
Italian Police Arrest Man After Alleged Attempt to Abduct Toddler at Bergamo Supermarket, Child Hospitalised With Fractured Femur
British Tourist Arrested at Hong Kong Airport After Meltdown and Vandalism
×