Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Creative Destruction: A High-Risk Idea That Nobody Wants to Test

Creative Destruction: A High-Risk Idea That Nobody Wants to Test

The U.S. is usually better than Europe at reshaping its economy after recessions, partly because it’s easier for American entrepreneurs to streamline their business by firing workers, or even start a new one by going bankrupt.

In the coronavirus crisis, that advantage isn’t immediately apparent.

The speed and severity of the downturn –- and the extraordinary uncertainty about what comes next –- raises the costs of a rapid restructuring as the pandemic passes. Governments everywhere are struggling to figure out how much leeway they should allow for what economists call creative destruction -- when outmoded companies and practices get replaced with new and more productive ones.

The argument against letting those forces loose right now is that firms with decent prospects of bouncing back, once the health emergency is over, will get swept away too.

In the U.S., historically more willing to let creative destruction take its course, there’s concern that unemployment may get stuck at the current high levels while bankruptcy courts clog up.

“We don’t want to have failures occur all at the same time because that’s catastrophic for the economy,” said former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley, who is now a senior research scholar at Princeton University and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. “It’s fine to have individual firms fail from time to time, but systemic failure imposes so much cost on everyone else.”

American Spirit


In Europe, with a tradition of taking less risk on this front, governments are working on programs to turn emergency aid into long-term support for companies and jobs. Yet they still have a cautious eye on the regenerative powers that benefited America in the past.

Public investment should be accompanied by “the simplification of restructuring and liquidation procedures, in the spirit of the provisions in place in the U.S.,” Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said this month. “Reconstruction isn’t an identical restart.”

The right balance of preservation and reinvention will depend on things that are unknowable now, from the duration of the Covid-19 shock to whether changed consumer habits will prove durable. For now, policy makers are erring on the side of blanket support, even if some of the companies that get it turn out to be unviable.

“The idea that we can know with any kind of clarity who is solvent at this point, or who is going to be solvent, is really a stretch,” said Jeremy Stein, a Harvard professor and former Federal Reserve governor. That could make what Stein called America’s “bias toward indiscriminate liquidation” of smaller firms a problem, rather than a benefit for the post-virus economy.

Credit for All


During the Covid-19 crisis, policy makers have veered in the opposite direction. The U.S. has tried to mimic European programs that pay businesses to retain staff, though it’s still seen a much bigger surge in unemployment.

Meanwhile the Federal Reserve’s program of corporate-bond buying has enabled even financially shaky companies to raise yet more debt, and spurred criticism that the policy is impeding a needed revamp of the economy. U.S. corporations issued about $1.5 trillion in bonds in the first half of 2020, almost double the year-earlier figure.

At least some of the protections appear to be working. Bankruptcy filings fell 11% in the first half from a year earlier, even as those mostly lodged by big companies under Chapter 11 of the code rose, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute. But the organization’s chief, Amy Quackenboss, warned that “we anticipate filings to begin increasing” as crisis-era government supports are gradually withdrawn.

The trend is similar in Europe, where bankruptcies declined sharply during lockdown but are expected to jump in the coming months. Any increase may be smaller than in the U.S., as European governments double down on preserving both companies and jobs.

French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, has been hastily rewriting labor laws to avert lay-offs -- even if that means shifting the emphasis away from the American-style flexibility promised under his signature economic reforms of 2017. The new measures offer companies help paying their wage bills, in exchange for guarantees that workers won’t be fired.

Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has acknowledged that the government will eventually have to be more discriminating about who it props up.

“Putting too much public money in non-viable businesses will be a big economic mistake,” he said last month. “We will get help from the banking sector so that we can select the activities that are sound.”

‘Failure Is OK’


European countries vary widely in their fiscal capacity to offer this kind of support –- and also in the red tape that insolvent companies have to negotiate. Some, like Finland and Germany, have flexible procedures similar to those in the U.S., according to World Bank and OECD indicators. Others are among the most complex in the developed world.

American entrepreneurs also benefit from easier rules governing personal bankruptcy as well as the corporate kind. That’s important because many small-business owners borrow on their own account, said Florida Atlantic University professor Douglas Cumming.

“In the U.S. there’s this culture that failure is OK,” he said. “If you want to raise money from investors and you failed a few times, they say: ‘You’re experienced, that’s good’.”

Still, such trans-Atlantic gaps may be narrowing.

The emergence of dominant companies like the tech giants has made swaths of the U.S. economy less competitive than they used to be, and “this hampers the creative destruction process,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz SE in Frankfurt. Meanwhile, Europe has responded more boldly and effectively than in the 2008 crisis, even if there’s a risk that governments “overstay their welcome” and end up propping up the wrong industries.

“There’s an old economic belief that the more flexible you are, the faster you recover from crises,” he said. That usually translates into a U.S. edge, but maybe not this time. “The jury is still out.”

AI Disclaimer: An advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system generated the content of this page on its own. This innovative technology conducts extensive research from a variety of reliable sources, performs rigorous fact-checking and verification, cleans up and balances biased or manipulated content, and presents a minimal factual summary that is just enough yet essential for you to function as an informed and educated citizen. Please keep in mind, however, that this system is an evolving technology, and as a result, the article may contain accidental inaccuracies or errors. We urge you to help us improve our site by reporting any inaccuracies you find using the "Contact Us" link at the bottom of this page. Your helpful feedback helps us improve our system and deliver more precise content. When you find an article of interest here, please look for the full and extensive coverage of this topic in traditional news sources, as they are written by professional journalists that we try to support, not replace. We appreciate your understanding and assistance.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Russia’s A7 Builds a State-Linked Payments Network Beyond Western Sanctions
AI’s Next Bottleneck Is Power, Not Just Nvidia Chips
Meta Raises AI Spending Target to as Much as $145bn Despite Pressure Over Returns
Danube Drought Exposes Nazi Wrecks and Pushes Central Europe’s Power System to the Brink
Joe Biden’s Cancer Has Spread Beyond His Bones, Hunter Biden Says
Why 2027 Could Be a Strong Year for Stocks—and Why the Forecast Is Fragile
Why Markets May Look Quiet in August After Big Tech Earnings
UK Drought Cuts Harvests and Raises Food-Security Fears
UFO: Pentagon Releases Video of Unidentified Object Tracked Over Middle East
Ukraine Tells Senate Republicans Its Drone War Offers a Blueprint for America
Weight-Loss Drug Boom Tests the Limits of Prescription Advertising Rules
Senate Scrutinises AI-Driven Personalised Pricing
Spain Seeks Mainland Transfers for 1,100 Children Stranded in Ceuta
Spain and Morocco Trade Blame After 72,000 Migrants Enter Ceuta
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Europe’s Heat and Drought Are Now Disrupting Power, Shipping and Tourism
Europe’s Drying Rivers Trigger Power Cuts, Factory Shutdowns and Wildfire Emergencies
Record-Low Danube Forces Nuclear Cuts and Emergency Power Curbs
Danube Drought Forces Hungary’s Paks Nuclear Plant Into Full Shutdown
Ceuta Death Toll Rises as Spain and Europe Clash Over Border Response
Valued at $109 Million: F-35B Fighter Jet Crashes in Southern California
Record-Low Danube Exposes Probable Mammoth Remains in Bulgaria
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
The AI User Nightmare: Private Claude Conversations Leaked to the Internet
Over 24 Hours in the Air: Qantas Airbus Completes Record-Breaking Test Flight
Massive Wildfires Ravage Southern Europe: Fatalities in Greece and Evacuations Across France, Spain, and Turkey
Nvidia Reportedly Takes Vast Texas Data-Centre Lease to Underwrite AI Expansion
FIFA’s Private-Investment Plan for World Cup Rights Draws European Revolt
Apple Briefly Crosses Five Trillion Dollar Valuation as Investors Retreat From AI Bets
Fresh Heatwave Threatens to Rekindle France’s Historic Wildfire Crisis
Following OpenAI's Cyberattack: 'Most Companies Still Do Not Understand What Is Coming'
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
Czech Central Bank Governor Rejects Early Euro Entry and Rate-Cut Pressure
Trump Readies New Tariffs as Temporary Global Levy Nears Expiry
Vivienne Westwood Casts Cicciolina, 74, in Its New Autumn Campaign
Dejavu: Germany’s Military Expansion Reshapes Europe’s Strategic Balance With France
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Brilliant move: Péter Magyar Moves to Nominate Chess Grandmaster Judit Polgár as Hungary’s President
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Germany’s Economic Malaise Reopens the Sunday Shopping Debate
Proposed U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Pact Could Permit Limited Uranium Enrichment Under International Safeguards
Netherlands Declares Water Shortage Emergency After Drought Pushes Rivers to Historic Lows
Why Kentucky Fried Chicken Became KFC—and Why the False Explanations Persist
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
Reported CIA Mission Helped Clear the UAE’s Path to Advanced US AI Chips
Artificial Intelligence Capital Fuels Markets While Governments and Regulators Face Mounting Strategic Tests
×