Budapest Post

Cum Deo pro Patria et Libertate
Budapest, Europe and world news

Biden v Trump: a roadmap to the 2024 presidential election

Biden v Trump: a roadmap to the 2024 presidential election

For now, a rerun of the 2020 race looks almost certain. With months to go till the first primaries, who is best placed to win?

Republican and Democratic voters have to wait nearly a year to decide on their candidates, but the US's 2024 presidential election campaign is already well underway.

So far, the odds are in favour of a head-to-head race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the first election since 1892 to pit a former president against a sitting one. So what can we expect, and who might come out on top?

Biden officially launched his reelection bid last month, rallying Americans to join him with a new slogan: "let’s finish the job". Meanwhile, on the other side, polls, fundraising numbers and endorsements all seem to point one way: while he already faces primary challengers as well as serious legal problems, Trump is set to win the Republican nomination.

He was recently indicted by a New York grand jury over alleged hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, but according to one recent poll, 68% of Republican primary voters consider the investigations into his conduct "politically motivated" and agree that "we must support him".

The former president is also ahead when it comes to money. The Trump campaign reported a $15.4 million fundraising haul for the first quarter of the year, putting him ahead of the two other declared GOP candidates. "Anti-woke" entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy declared $11.4 million, a sum overwhelmingly sourced from his personal wealth; Trump's former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, meanwhile, initially claimed to have raised a similar figure, but ultimately turned out to have pulled in just $5.1 million.

Crucially, Trump's numbers do not reflect the effect of his recent indictment, or the civil suit that saw him found liable for sexual assault. In the two weeks after the Stormy Daniels indictment, the Trump campaign raised an additional $15.4 million, receiving more than 312,000 donations – 97% of which were less than $200.


Establishment blessing


If money matters, so do endorsements. While support for Trump is far from unanimous, the GOP's increasingly extreme Washington leaders are so far still backing him. Haley has not attracted much in the way of top-tier endorsements, while other possible candidates yet to jump in – former vice president Mike Pence, for one – show little sign of gathering steam.

It remains possible that popular Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could pose a threat to Trump’s nomination. But while he has long been seen as by far Trump's most significant challenger, the chatter about his chances against the former president has died down noticeably in recent months.

Biden’s campaign announcement, meanwhile, has hardly generated a wave of enthusiasm. According to an NBC poll, 70% of all Americans, including 51% of Democrats, think that he should not run for a second term. And yet, there is no sign of any mainstream Democrat stepping forward to challenge him.


There are two other candidates running against him so far: spiritual author Marianne Williamson, who campaigned unsuccessfully in the 2020 contest, and longtime anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr, whose father was murdered while campaigning for president in 1968. But both have been firmly frozen out by the party establishment, and so far, neither appears to pose any meaningful threat to Biden's chances; there is no indication the president will appear alongside them at any TV debates.

Even with no mainstream Democratic challenger on the horizon, Biden's nomination is hardly a sure thing. Forced to compete on the gruelling campaign trail while also holding the presidency, the octogenarian Biden's verbal and physical performance may yet raise further doubts over whether he is fit for the job.

But while combination of consistently discouraging polls, constant Republican allegations of corruption involving the Biden family and doubts about Biden's ability to serve out a full second term leave at least some space for an alternative scenario to play out, there remains no indication of what that would scenario would be.

So assuming that a 2020 rematch is on the cards, who would be in a better position to win the White House?


Class consciousness


Recent polls suggest the rematch would be a tight race, but the road ahead is still long and full of uncertainties. What seems clear, however, is that both candidates will revert to Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid”. And while Biden is currently insisting that his economic plan is working, economic gut feelings could still work in the GOP’s favour.

While a lot can and will happen over the next 17 months, the economic outlook is far from encouraging, as the risk of recession remains high. Record-high inflation has been punishing Americans for the best part of two years: according to a recent survey by McLaughlin & associates, 65% of voters believe the US is heading in the wrong direction, and 79% say their household finances have been adversely affected by the economy.

Moreover, an unprecedented debt default – with potentially devastating consequences for the American economy - remains a possibility, with Biden seemingly unwilling to compromise with Republican demands in exchange for a vote to lift the debt ceiling.

The GOP's opportunity here stems from the fact that the party's base has substantially changed, rebalancing away from wealthy "country club" suburbanites and instead relying on a culturally conservative and economically populist middle- and working-class Americans – that is, people hit hardest by the economy's problems.

By way of evidence, nine of the ten wealthiest congressional districts are now represented by Democrats, while Republicans represent 64% of the congressional districts whose median incomes sit below the national median.

Yet even with an advantage on the economic front, in order to secure a majority, Trump would have to balance the claims of his conservative base without alienating independent voters. This would demand a change in style that the former president may not be willing to make, if he's even capable of doing so.


Swing states


Meanwhile, America's electoral geography has changed over the past decade, with Democrats making advances in urban centres and Republicans cementing their advantage in rural areas.

The crucial Electoral College battlegrounds have also changed. Coming off the last two elections, former swing states Ohio, Iowa and even Florida are now firmly in the red column. Eyes are now turned to the the onetime Democratic “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that went for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 – both times by extremely narrow margins.

And regardless of who the candidates are, the economic and geographical realignment of the two party's electoral coalitions means the 2024 election will be decided by suburban voters in those same three states, along with the rapidly liberalising battlegrounds of Arizona and Georgia – two states that locked up Biden's victory in 2020.

Comments

Oh ya 209 days ago
Tough call. You have 1 who should be living in Shady Acres because his mind is gone or in jail because of the now proven bribes and the other has a ego problem and will never admit or take responsibility for his operation warp speed clot shots which are also a proven fact. The USA needs better leaders than the choices that they have now., soon it will be a 3rd world country with the way the restcof the world is turning away from the USD, Petro dollar.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Budapest Post
Close
0:00
0:00
Olaf Scholz Assures: No Cuts to German Welfare State Amid Budget Crisis
Greece and Turkey Agree to Reboot Relations After Landmark Talks in Athens
Greece and Turkey Agree to Reboot Relations After Landmark Talks in Athens
No. 10 Advised: Rwanda Plan Has '50% at Best' Chance of Success Before Election
Significant Shift: UK Voters Express Desire for Closer Relationship with EU Since Brexit
Sadiq Khan Appeals to Progressives for Support Amidst Concerns Over New Voting System
Sunak Faces Further Scrutiny in Covid Inquiry as Pranksters Claim Access to His Former Phone Number
NHS Issues Apology for Sending Incorrect Body for Family Cremation
Labour Intensifies Condemnation of Gaza Violence
Senior doctors' significant pay increase creates tension within NHS
Two distinct investigations into the Covid pandemic are underway in the UK, each adopting a contrasting approach
Stephen Fry Returns to Work Just Three Months After Stage Fall
Laura Kuenssberg Reports: Tory Party Divisions and Disputes Heighten Pressure on Sunak
UK's Generation X Skeptical About Retirement Prospects
EU Fiscal Agreement Sparks Disagreement Between France and Germany Over Investment Expenditure
EU Fiscal Agreement Sparks Disagreement Between France and Germany Over Investment Expenditure
UK Parliamentary Committee Criticizes Lackluster Post-Brexit Financial Reforms
UK Parliamentary Committee Criticizes Lackluster Post-Brexit Financial Reforms
US, UK, Canada Impose Sanctions on Dozens on Human Rights Anniversary The US, UK, and Canada have collectively imposed sanctions on dozens of individuals and entities for human rights abuses to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
US, UK, Canada Impose Sanctions on Dozens on Human Rights Anniversary The US, UK, and Canada have collectively imposed sanctions on dozens of individuals and entities for human rights abuses to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
"New Beginnings: Greece and Turkey Agree to Repair Relations
"New Beginnings: Greece and Turkey Agree to Repair Relations
Finland's Supreme Court Prevents Extradition of Russian Terrorism Suspect to Ukraine
Finland's Supreme Court Prevents Extradition of Russian Terrorism Suspect to Ukraine
UK Proposes Streamlined Financial Advice to Reduce Costs for Consumers
UK's Labour Party Conducts Review of Financial Services to Boost City's Growth Potential
London City Hall Condemns Blast Targeting Clean Air Zone Camera
Controversy Surrounds President Macron's Hanukkah Candle Lighting Ceremony at Elysée Palace
Venezuela Steps Up Claim on Guyana's Essequibo Region
Spain's First AI Model Earns Up to $10,000 Monthly
German Cabinet Works to Address 'No-Debt' Crisis After Court Outlaws Budget
Former President Restricted from Leaving Ukraine Amid Alleged Plan to Meet Hungary's Viktor Orban
Spain soccer kiss: Furore grows as prosecutors launch probe against federation chief
Paper straws found to contain long-lasting and potentially toxic chemicals - study
FTX's Bankman-Fried headed for jail after judge revokes bail
Blackrock gets half a trillion dollar deal to rebuild Ukraine
Steve Jobs' Son Launches Venture Capital Firm With $200 Million For Cancer Treatments
Greek PM offers tourists affected by wildfires a free stay in Rhodes next year.
Israel: Unprecedented Civil Disobedience Looms as IDF Reservists Protest Judiciary Reform
Google reshuffles Assistant unit, lays off some staffers, to 'supercharge' products with A.I.
End of Viagra? FDA approved a gel against erectile dysfunction
UK sanctions Russians judges over dual British national Kara-Murza's trial
US restricts visa-free travel for Hungarian passport holders because of security concerns
America's First New Nuclear Reactor in Nearly Seven Years Begins Operations
Southeast Asia moves closer to economic unity with new regional payments system
Political leader from South Africa, Julius Malema, led violent racist chants at a massive rally on Saturday
Today Hunter Biden’s best friend and business associate, Devon Archer, testified that Joe Biden met in Georgetown with Russian Moscow Mayor's Wife Yelena Baturina who later paid Hunter Biden $3.5 million in so called “consulting fees”
How “peacekeepers” at the UN spend our American tax dollars.
Singapore Carries Out First Execution of a Woman in Two Decades Amid Capital Punishment Debate
Spanish Citizenship Granted to Iranian chess player who removed hijab
×