The narrow strait that serves as the exit from the Red Sea, a mere twenty kilometers wide, has been the center of recent tensions. In the past few days, United States-led forces and Houthi rebels have exchanged rocket fire. The escalating situation compelled commercial vessels to take extensive detours, causing a ripple of disruption that reached the world's two largest Western automakers. Their operations are inching towards a standstill due to a shortage of parts, as the shipping routes they rely on are heavily affected by the chaos in the region.
The European factories of
Tesla and Volvo have been forced to pause production, with
Tesla planning to send its German workers home for an anticipated two-week shutdown starting Monday, the 29th, and Volvo hoping to limit its closure to only three days in the coming week. The impact of these disruptions extends beyond the factory gates, as the supply chain connections imply that local suppliers in various countries, including Hungary, could also suffer the consequences.
At the heart of this disruption lies the Houthi movement in Yemen, whose persistent attacks have thrown the strategic maritime passage into uncertainty. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, as trivial as it may seem, is a critical pathway for vessels traveling from Asia to Europe, transporting a significant fraction of international trade through the Suez Canal.
The conflict increasingly consuming parts of Israel, Gaza, and southern Lebanon has only exacerbated the troubles faced by global trade, already reeling from the effects of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Houthis' entry into this fray has added pressure by asserting quasi-control over the exit to the Indian Ocean opposite Djibouti. They harass cargo vessels and oil tankers passing through the strait with missiles and also capture commercial ships and their crews.
The Houthi rocket arsenal has been widely documented, and in response to American attacks, intelligence sources predict heightened strikes targeting the Yemeni terrorist organization's forces and storage facilities. However, these tactics raise serious concerns about potential civilian casualties, as the rebels, like other terrorist groups, are known to position their armaments in populated areas, which could render Western double standards even more apparent.
Although attention has been focused on the Houthis' rocket capabilities, their significant artillery forces should not be overlooked. Some of their artillery, captured from government troops during the past fifteen years of conflict, boasts Soviet origins, as well as a mix of Iranian and Western weapons. While opinions vary regarding the size of their ammunition stockpile, adversaries agree that the Houthis have enough firepower at their disposal.
Given the narrowness of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, even outdated artillery from the era of World War II could threaten passage. Iranian-made heavy weapons in the Houthis' possession can reach thirty kilometers without rocket assistance and up to forty kilometers with it. Deploying and precisely leveraging such weapons may be less complex than launching ballistic missiles or managing drones.
Evidence of the Houthis' artillery prowess is clear from the significant damage incurred when it targets Saudi border cities or government forces. Speculation suggests that the group might increasingly rely on their artillery capabilities, which are simpler to deploy and dismantle, aligning with the hit-and-run tactics that maintain persistent fear.
The economic implications for commerce are profound, as vessels may be forced to circumnavigate Africa, severely inflating costs and deepening the existing commercial chaos. Furthermore, the Houthis' use of mobile, tracked self-propelled artillery adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
Costs are a critical consideration. The Houthis maintain an economic advantage, with their drones and missiles costing only a few thousand dollars each, in contrast to the exponentially more expensive countermeasures required, which can carry million-dollar price tags. The operating costs for just half an hour of an American fighter jet's flight time could equate to the annual income of an average Hungarian family, excluding additional expenses like armaments.
In conclusion, it's reasonable to anticipate that artillery will soon join the fray and accentuate the chorus of conflict near the Red Sea's exit. The history of the Houthi movement suggests they are not a people who quickly concede or cower in fear of American or allied strikes.