The journalists at the British newspaper, Daily Mail, eschewed the crystal ball in favor of a more modern prognostication tool: they asked chatbots what to expect in 2024. The AI predictions, particularly concerning their own capabilities and their implications for our present, are somewhat unsettling.
The technological sector has seen substantial growth in artificial intelligence during 2023. The surge, led by the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, has brought unexpected advancements, with AI demonstrating formidable, sometimes disconcerting expertise. But what does this presage for 2024? The Daily Mail reporters posed this question not to themselves but to the most fitting oracles available cutting-edge chatbots.
Google’s Bard and Claude, developed by Anthropic and strongly supported by Amazon, were selected for their ability to generate forecasts using live information from the internet, unlike ChatGPT and Microsoft Bing which rely on older datasets.
Claude prognosticates the emergence of the first AI models this year that show signs of "General Artificial Intelligence" (AGI), capable of any intellectual task a human can perform. These models are expected to match or even exceed human adaptability across various environments and tasks, potentially leading to monumental shifts in human society.
Claude told the Daily Mail, "Recent years have seen AI algorithms meeting or surpassing human performance in specialized tasks like object recognition, gaming, and language processing, driven by techniques like deep learning and neural networks operating on high-performance computing infrastructures. The heavy investments by major tech companies and startups indicate that the pace of innovation is unlikely to slow down anytime soon."
Tech groups like DeepMind, OpenAI, Google Brain, and Anthropic are poised to make significant strides in the AGI field. Claude predicts that by 2024 we may see demonstrations of systems capable of extended reasoning, creativity, and decision-making. He warns that challenges surrounding AI could include unpredictable system behaviors and levels of job automation that outpace human workers' ability to adapt.
Google's Bard forecasts breakthroughs in biotechnology that could "revitalize" the human species, with developments possibly including "brain-computer interfaces," like those pursued by
Elon Musk’s company, Neuralink. Despite the eeriness of this prospect, analysis from Foresight Factory suggests that over a third of users would welcome a chip that facilitates easier connection with computer systems.
Bard's predictions also extend to the development of biocompatible materials and robotics leading to bionic limbs that restore or even surpass natural motor functions. Exoskeletons could augment physical capabilities for heavy lifting, military applications, or assisting the elderly.
Brain-computer interfaces could enable direct communication between the brain and computer systems, controlling prostheses, external devices, or even virtual environments. Potential applications include aiding communication for paralyzed individuals, enhancing creativity and productivity, or even enabling brain-to-brain communication.
In the realm of personalized medicine, Bard anticipates significant advances facilitated by AI. Personalized or precision medicine aims to tailor treatments and preventive strategies to an individual’s unique genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors. AI, sifting through massive amounts of genetic data, can identify risk factors for diseases, enabling proactive interventions and personalized prevention plans. AI could also help predict patient responses to various treatments, aiding doctors in choosing the most effective and least harmful options. However, concerns about data privacy and ensuring AI does not treat patients with bias remain as potential issues.
In the backdrop of many elections taking place this year, concerns over foreign interference, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns are on the rise. With the American presidential race approaching, Bard predicts that malicious actors may attempt to undermine the elections using technology, including attacks on voting machines aimed at eroding trust in the results.
"The theft of sensitive electoral data or campaign intelligence could be used for blackmail, targeted disinformation campaigns, or voter suppression. Bots and fake accounts might spread propaganda, reinforce certain narratives and silence opposing voices. Deepfakes and manipulated audio-visual content could blur the line between truth and fiction. Personalized fake news articles, social media posts, or targeted emails might exploit existing biases and concerns to sway voters toward certain candidates or deter them from voting altogether," Bard suggests.
Claude also gives a dire forecast for the year, hinting at escalating tensions between the United States and China. He warns, "China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that should be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. The United States historically has backed Taiwan's self-determination rights, providing arms for its defense and thereby heightening tension with China. If Taiwan moves toward formal independence in 2024, it could elicit a more aggressive posture or even military action from China."
These AI insights offered to the Daily Mail present a glimpse into a future shaped by rapid technological evolution and underscores the profound implications such advancements may hold for society at large.